Crimea during the Great War. The situation in the occupied Crimea in 2022-2023. Military Context (1)

The Monitoring group of the Black Sea Institute of Strategic Studies
and the BlackSeaNews

presents the analytical report:
Crimea during the Great War. The Situation on the Occupied Crimean Peninsula
in 2022-202

Tetyana Guchakova
Tetyana Ivanevich
Andrii Klymenko

This report is a logical continuation of our previous works published by the authors in 2021, 2020, 2019, and 2018 (see the Crimean Library section of the website). This work, published at the time of the tragic flooding of the Kherson region caused by the Russian military blowing up of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station dam, does not include the possible consequences of the disaster for the Crimean peninsula. Additional publications of the Monitoring Group will be devoted specifically to that topic.

Part 1:

1.1. The unbridled optimism of the «winners»
1.2. The mood change: War comes to Crimea
1.3. Expectations of the Ukrainian offensive: the drone war
1.4. Expectations of the Ukrainian offensive: defense construction as a marker of change

Crimea during the Great War

Part 1: The military context that cannot be ignored

1.1. The unbridled optimism of the «winners»

 

The beginning of Russia's large-scale aggression against Ukraine on February 24, 2022, hereinafter referred to as the Great War, has dramatically changed the security and socio-economic situation on the occupied Crimean peninsula.

Since February 24, 2022, the Crimean peninsula has acquired a new pivotal function — that of a Russian military foothold for:

• land invasion of Ukraine’s Kherson, Mykolaiv and Zaporizhzhia regions;

• naval invasion of Ukraine’s Azov Sea coast in the Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions, namely, Henichesk, Berdyansk and Mariupol;

• missile attacks on almost all regions of Ukraine with sea-launched Kalibr cruise missiles from the Black Sea Fleet ships based in Crimea’s Sevastopol;

• missile attacks on Kherson and Mykolaiv regions from the Bal coastal missile systems positioned on Cape Tarkhankut in Western Crimea;

• air strikes on the Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions by Russian military aviation based at the Crimean airfields;

• air strikes on the Ukraine’s southern regions with unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) operating from Crime’s northern regions;

• Russian Black Sea Fleet blockade of Ukrainian shipping in the Black and Azov Seas and seizure of Zmeinyi Island.

To that end, in early 2022, Crimea developed the following new role and specifics of the frontline region:

• the main rear logistics hub for the build-up, replenishment and logistical support of the Russian troops in the newly occupied territories of Ukraine in the Mykolaiv, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions*;

*Dzhankoy (Northern Crimea) is now Russia’s main military logistics hub that connects railways and highways between all major cities and districts of Crimea with the occupied southern regions of Ukraine, as well as with the Krasnodar Territory of the Russian Federation via the Kerch Bridge.

*Russian troops fighting in southern Ukraine suffer significant losses. They are being replenished mainly by conscripts from Russia's southern regions, who arrive via the Kerch Bridge, while military equipment — by that from storage units, including the 943rd center for mobilization deployment in the Crimean village of Novoozerne (Lake Donuzlav). New weapons are also delivered by rail from the RF territory the Kerch Bridge, and partially by military transport aircraft via Crimean airfields.

• a huge military hospital and base for the recovery and rehabilitation of wounded Russian military personnel.

After the outbreak of the Great War in 2022, the occupied Crimea has undergone fundamental changes directly resulting from the hostilities, such as:

• Russia’s February 2022 occupation of the Kherson region led to the seizure of the main structure of the North Crimean Canal and the ensuing unblocking of the Dnipro water supply to the occupied Crimea;

• occupation of the Kherson and the southern part of Zaporizhzhia regions allowed the Russian aggressors to organize the seizure and Crimean transit of large volumes of Ukrainian grain for further sea export;

In the first weeks and months of the Great War, Crimean collaborators and Russian officials experienced an unrestrained surge of optimism about the prospects for the development of Crimea. In particular, there was even an idea to merge with the occupied Kherson region on the basis of the historic existence of the Tavriya province in the Russian Empire**.

** Tavriya province, an administrative-territorial unit of the Russian Empire with the administrative center in Simferopol, existed from October 8 (20), 1802 to October 18, 1921.

The province covered the entire Crimean peninsula and part of the modern Ukraine’s southern regions of Ukraine, namely, the Dnipro, Melitopol, and Berdyansk counties — the southern parts of the modern Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions.

 

1.2. The mood change. War comes to Crimea

 

However, within a few months of the Great War, due to the progress of Ukraine’s Armed Forces (AFU), a fundamentally different situation began to take shape:

• On April 13, 2022, with two R-360 Neptune missiles of the RK-360MK coastal anti-ship cruise missile complex, the Ukrainian Navy struck the Russian BSF flagship missile cruiser Moskva. The ship capsized and sank. On the evening of April 14, the Russian Ministry of Defense admitted that Moskva had been destroyed.

• On June 17, 2022, with a US-made Harpoon anti-ship missile, the Ukrainian Navy destroyed from the shore the Russian BSF rescue and towing vessel Spasatel Vasily Bekh transporting ammunition, weapons, and Russian military personnel to Zmeinyi Island.

• On June 20-26, 2022, Ukrainian missile strikes disabled the Chornomornaftogaz offshore gas platforms seized during the 2014 occupation of Crimea.

• As a result, a huge gas flare that continues to this day erupted at the gas field, completely shutting down natural gas production and costing the peninsula the loss of about 1.5 billion cubic meters of gas per year.

• On June 30, 2022, as a result of Ukraine's missile and artillery strikes on Zmeinyi Island, after 126 days of occupation, the Russians were forced to hastily evacuate the island’s garrison.

• The loss of Zmeinyi Island, along with the evacuation of Russian military personnel and radar equipment from the oil and gas platforms, meant that Russian troops had lost full control over the northwestern part of the Black Sea.

• On August 9, 2022, the Ukrainian military attacked the Saki air base in the village of Novofedorivka on the western resort coast of Crimea near the city of Saki. The explosions destroyed 9 Russian aircraft.

• On August 16, 2022, an ammunition depot in the Dzhankoy district of Northern Crimea unexpectedly exploded.

Those summer 2022 events for the first time caused real panic among both Russian tourists and Russian citizens who moved to the peninsula over the years of occupation*.

*The following days saw the record number of passenger cars
leaving Crimea via the Kerch Strait bridge in the bridge's history.

Thus, since mid-2022, the war has come directly to Crimea.

Later, Russian military facilities in Crimea suffered additional attacks, including the October 8 strike on the Kerch Bridge and the October 29 world's first ever naval drone attack on the Russian BSF warships at the its main base in Sevastopol.
 

Finally, the November 2022 success of the AFU in repelling land attacks on Mykolaiv, and the liberation of Kherson and the region’s occupied districts on the northern bank of the Dnipro led to the formation of Ukraine's principled position demanding the de-occupation of not only the territories occupied in 2022, but also of the Crimean peninsula.

1.3. Expectations of the Ukrainian offensive:
the drone war

The events of the second half of 2022 have effectively transformed the Crimean peninsula from being a frontline region of the winning army to a frontline region of a limited combat operations of the losing army.

By 2023, all that created in and around the occupied peninsula a fundamentally new atmosphere of expectation of an upcoming Ukrainian offensive on Crimea, which now affects all areas of life there.

Numerous and regular 2023 Ukrainian attacks on military targets in the occupied Crimea by sea and air drones and missile weapons only continue to reinforce that anticipation.

While between January 1 and May 20, 2023, we have recorded more than 30 drone and missile attacks on the Crimean targets, it’s possible there were a lot more. 

Over half of those, 17, were on Sevastopol, the main base of the Russian BSF. Besides, the main attack targets were military airfields and air defense positions in various parts of the peninsula, as well as troop concentrations and railway stations in northern Crimea.

A full list of the attacks is provided in the appendix at the end of Part 1, so below we will summarize only the most significant ones.

• 20.03.2023 — kamikaze drones attack on the Dzhankoy railway junction. The strike has allegedly destroyed a railroad cargo of sea-based NK missiles and damaged the railway station.

There were about 10 explosions total that led to certain city areas losing power. The railway station’s locomotive depot, security building and the fuel and goods warehouses suffered considerable damage.

• 08.04.2023 — 2 missiles attack on Feodosia, with one of them striking the positions of the 18th anti-aircraft missile regiment of the 31st air defense division of the Russian Aerospace Forces (S-400 Triumph) and wounding three Russian soldiers. 

According to the official version, the second missile launched allegedly from the Ukrainian had been shot down by the Russian air defense system in the Radyanskyi district over the village of Urozhayne.

• 13.04.2023 — an explosion near the town of Staryi Krym, Kirovsky district. Local residents reported a powerful explosion in the morning, in the area of the AFRF military camp (45.0868566, 35.0704649) behind Agarmysh, one of the largest Soviet-era military training grounds in Crimea.

There have been no official comments from either side.

• 29.04.2023 — a 2 UAV attack on Kozacha Bay in Sevastopol, causing explosion and fire at the BSF oil depot. The fire engulfed at area of 1000 square meters and destroyed more than 10 oil product tanks totaling about 40 thousand tons.

According to the Russian sources, «only one drone reached the oil tank, while the second one has been shot down with firearms by the fleet's surveillance posts servicemen, with its pieces found on the shore by the terminal.»

• 01.05.2023 — a UAV attack on Western Crimea. Traces of the air defense systems’ operation were seen over the village of Zaozerne near Yevpatoria.

The area is home of the 40th separate command and measurement complex (Center for Long-Range Space Communications, military unit 81415), part of the Main Space Test Center of the Russian Aerospace Forces. The Center has a unique RT-70 (P-2500) radio telescope with a mirror diameter of 70 m and a radio telescope area of 2500 square meters, making it one of the largest fully mobile radio telescopes in the world, seized during the occupation of Crimea from the National Center for Space Control and Testing of the State Space Agency of Ukraine.

• 07.05.2023 — a massive attack on Sevastopol by more than 10 or 22 UAVs.

The Sevastopol version read: «At night, air defense forces and electronic warfare units repelled another attack on Sevastopol. The 1st UAV lost control and crashed in a forest area. The 2nd one was shot down over the sea in Khersoness. The 3rd one was shot down over the sea from the side of the Northern breakwater. No city objects have been damaged. In total, more than 10 drones have attacked Crimea and Sevastopol.»

Meanwhile, the Russian Defense Ministry's version stated: «Overnight, air defense systems detected 22 Ukrainian attack drones over the Black Sea. All the UAVs were destroyed by anti-aircraft missile systems or suppressed by electronic warfare.»

1.4. Anticipation of the Ukrainian offensive:
the fortification construction as a marker of change

On November 11, 2022, Ukrainian troops entered the liberated city of Kherson. Russian troops had left the right bank of the Dnipro that morning. The creation of new and strengthening of existing defenses on the Crimean peninsula had begun a few days earlier, when Russia realized it would not be able to hold the left bank.

• On November 11, 2022, i.e., the very day of the liberation of Kherson, the General Staff of the AFU reported that Russian troops were improving the fortifications on the left bank of the Dnipro and in the north of the annexed Crimea.

• On November 18, 2022, during a meeting of the occupation government, the so-called «Head of the Republic of Crimea» Sergei Aksyonov said that to ensure public safety, fortification work in Crimea was ongoing under his personal control.

• On February 5, 2023, a high (yellow) level of terrorist threat was introduced in the cities of Armyansk, Dzhankoy, Kerch and Krasnoperekopsk, the Dzhankoy, Krasnoperekopsk and Leninsky districts, and the facilities of the «ministries» of transport, housing and communal services, health, fuel and energy and industrial policy, as well as the Committee for Water Management and Land Reclamation of Crimea. The threat level was in effect until further notice.

• On February 22, 2023, at a meeting with the press, Aksyonov announced that the fortifications construction in Crimea had been approved in Moscow:

«This was my initiative, and I thank the President for supporting it. <...> The fortification line will stretch around all of Crimea, within its borders. If we never have to use it, fine, we'll just use it to show at tourist excursions. But for now, it’s best to have it — if you want peace, prepare for war.»  

That likely means that shortly before Putin had allocated additional funds for the construction of fortifications in Crimea.

Thus, the late 2022-early 2023 course of the war put an end to the sectors of the Crimean economy that under the occupation, had been considered primary ones, namely:

• the defense industry development prospects

• new investment projects

• residential construction for the influx of Russian citizens moving to Crimea since 2014

• the real estate market

• the Crimean resort and tourism industry, etc.

To be continued...

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Main sources of maps and photos:

• Kherson Offensive as of 24 February 2022

• Map of the 2022 Kherson-Mykolaiv offensive

• Fires on the Snake island on the morning of June 30, 2022

• https://www.svoboda.org/a/glavkom-zaluzhnyy-udary-po-aviabaze-v-krymu-nanesla-ukraina/32022884.html

• Map of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.

• heohrafiya-znyshhenyx-ta-poshkodzhenyx-vijskovyx-ta-infrastrukturnyx-obyektiv-rf-u-krymu

• Map of the 2022 Kherson counteroffensive, during the Russo-Ukrainian War. Made using OpenTopoMap data

• https://rus.azattyq.org/a/satellite-images-russia-war-preparation-crimea/32361606.html

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Annex 1. List of Drone and Missile Attacks on the Territory of the Crimean Peninsula Between January 1 and May 20, 2023 (monitoring by the BSISS/BSN Monitoring Group):

02.01.2023 — attack on Sevastopol by 2 UAVs. The official report stated that the air defense systems shot down first one and later the second drone over the sea. At the same time, Russian media reported that one drone had been shot down over the city

04.01.2023 — attack on Sevastopol by 2 UAVs. The official report stated that in the morning, air defense forces had shot down two UAVs near the Belbek airfield

07.01.2023 — UAV attack on Sevastopol. The official report stated that in the morning, one UAV had been shot down over the Northern Bridge, at the entrance to the main bay

15.01.2023 — sounds of explosions in Sevastopol. Crimean social media publics reported explosions in several areas. There has been no official report

16.01.2023 — 7 to 10 UAVs attack on Belbek air base in Sevastopol. The official report stated that the air defense and BSF forces had shot down 7 UAVs over the sea. The attack began after midnight. First, it was reported that a UAV had been shot down over the bay, later — that the UAV had been shot down over the sea on the way to the Belbek airfield

24.01.2023 — explosions in Simferopol. Citizens reported the sounds of at least 4 explosions in the area of the 51st Army Street. There has been no official report

16.02.2023 — a UAV attack on Sevastopol. Around 5:00 am, several explosions were heard over the areas where Russian military units were located. The largest explosion occurred at 6:15 am. The official report stated that in the Sevastopol area, air defense and the Black Sea Fleet had shot down 2 of the 2 UAVs over the sea

17.02.2023 — a UAV attack on Sevastopol with sounds of 2 explosions heard by the Sevastopol residents in the area of Lukomskaya Street, on Ostryakov Avenue, in Kamyshova Bay, a very powerful one in Balaklava district and so on. The Russian version announced emergencies at the Balaklava thermal power plant and at a a ship in the Striletska Bay. The official report stated that air defense was «operating in the area of the Balaklava TPP» and that a drone had been allegedly shot down, with the TPP undamaged and working normally. It was reported that an emergency situation occurred in Striletska Bay where allegedly, an electrical outlet «on a decommissioned small anti-submarine ship that was being prepared for disposal» caught fire because of a heater, causing a «house fire»

01.03.2023 — sounds of night explosions in Saki and Yevpatoria, in the Simferopol region of Crimea and on the Southern Coast. Crimean publics reported the sounds of explosions in Bakhchisarai near the military unit on Simferopolska Street, in many villages of Bakhchisarai district, Yalta, Gurzuf and several other settlements, in particular, in Chornomorske and Mizhvodne. Russian bloggers explained the sounds of the explosions as the plane going supersonic. There has been no official report

02.03.2023 — a 2 UAV attack on Saky. At about two in the morning, two unidentified UAVs crashed on the territory of a military unit in the Saky area. The Russian side reported the work of air defense. After the UAVs fell down, one of them allegedly exploded. As a result, the wall of one of the buildings had been pierced by debris. Telegram channels also published a photo of a Mugin-5 Pro UAV that had been allegedly grounded by electronic warfare equipment in the Saky district

04.03.2023 — a UAV attack on the airbase in Hvardiyske, Simferopol district. The crimeans reported that at about 4 p.m. in Hvardiyske air defense had been activated, shooting down a drone that fell and exploded on the territory of a garden cooperative

07.03.2023 — an explosion near the Belbek airfield in Sevastopol. The official report state that "ship's crews are training on the outer roadstead. Everything is calm in the city»

20.03.2023 — a kamikaze drone attack on the Dzhankoy railway junction. The strike involving about 10 explosions destroyed a cargo of sea-launched NK missiles and damaged the railway junction. Some areas of the city lost power.The railway station’s locomotive depot, security building and the fuel and goods warehouses suffered considerable damage

22.03.2023 — 2-3 naval drone and an aerial UAV attack on Sevastopol. The official report stated that 3 surface — according to another version, 2 surface and one airborne — had been destroyed and no warships had been damaged. «One unmanned surface vehicle had been stopped by protective booms, while two other destroyed in the harbor.» The attack took place at 5 am. «The first drone, a surface drone, was destroyed from a ship — the men on duty saw it from the ship. Fifteen minutes later, two more had been shot down by riflemen on the approach to the Sevastopol raid. The explosions damaged several buildings, in particular, windows were kicked out at 2 Lenina Street, in the Moscow House. The Russian Defense Minister gifted the two soldiers who had destroyed the drones with a cash bonus

29.03.2023 — a UAV attack on Hvardiyske, Simferopol district. The official report said that a UAV had been shot down in Simferopol district and allegedly crashed in a field, causing no casualties or damage

31.03.2023 — a UAV attack in Razdolne, home to the radio engineering military unit 85683-r of the Russian Aerospace Forces in Northwestern Crimea. Publics reported the sound of an explosion and a smoke trail in the sky that looked like air defense, as well as a column of smoke on land, next to the power line

04.04.2023 — a 2 UAV attack caused fire in abandoned farm in Armyansk where Russian military were stationed

08.04.2023 — a 2 missile attack on Feodosia. One hit the positions of a division of the 18th regiment of the 31st air defense division of the anti-aircraft missile troops of the Russian Aerospace Forces (S-400 Triumph), wounding three servicemen. According to the official version, the second missile launched allegedly from the Ukrainian side was shot down by the Russian air defense system in the Radyanskyi district over the village of Urozhayne

13.04.2023 — an explosion near the town of Staryi Krym in Kirovsky district. That morning local residents reported a powerful explosion in the area of the Russian Armed Forces military camp (45.0868566, 35.0704649) behind Agarmysh. There have been no official comments from either side

19.04.2023 — the Sevastopol locals reported the sounds of the machine gun fire and a rocket launch at the time when no military exercises had been announced. However, official sources reported that those were exercises aimed at defending the Sevastopol Bay raid

20.04.2023 — sounds of explosions in Sevastopol. Official sources reported "practice as part of the of anti-submarine sabotage support»

22.04.2023 — the sound of an explosion and an aerial target, probably a UAV in the Kerch Peninsula in Eastern Crimea. Residents of Leninsky district heard loud sounds. The pro-Russian publics comment read: «An enemy object has been shot down over the Sea of Azov. No damage or casualties»

24.04.2023 — a 2-3 surface drone attack in Sevastopol. Two explosions were heard in the city. According to official reports, the drones had been destroyed on Sevastopol’s outer raid. As a result, four residential buildings suffered window damage

29.04.2023 — a 2 UAV attack on Kozacha Bay in Sevastopol, causing explosion and fire at the BSF oil depot. The fire engulfed at area of 1000 square meters and destroyed more than 10 oil product tanks totaling about 40 thousand tons. According to the Russian sources, «only one drone reached the oil tank, while the second one has been shot down with firearms by the fleet's surveillance posts servicemen, with its pieces found on the shore by the terminal.»

29.04.2023 — a 2 UAV attack. According to Russian sources, one UAV had been shot down by air defense forces in the sky over Crimea, while another suppressed by electronic warfare. There were no casualties or damage. The attack allegedly took place simultaneously with the attack on Sevastopol, but the downing location is unknown

01.05.2023 — a 2 UAV attack on Sevastopol. According to the Russian version, the attack had been repelled on the outer raid with one UAV downed while trying to approach Sevastopol

01.05.2023 — a UAV attack on Western Crimea. Traces of the air defense systems’ operation were seen over the village of Zaozerne near Yevpatoria. The area is home of the 40th separate command and measurement complex (Center for Long-Range Space Communications, military unit 81415), part of the Main Space Test Center of the Russian Aerospace Forces. The Center has a unique RT-70 (P-2500) radio telescope with a mirror diameter of 70 m and a radio telescope area of 2500 square meters, making it one of the largest fully mobile radio telescopes in the world, seized during the occupation of Crimea from the National Center for Space Control and Testing of the State Space Agency of Ukraine.

03.05.2023 — Southeastern Crimea. According to official reports, «air defense forces have successfully practiced in the southeast of Crimea with no damages or casualties»

04.05.2023 — a UAV attack in Sevastopol. According to official reports, around 19.00, air defense forces destroyed a UAV in the area of the Belbek airfield. No facilities have been damaged

06.05.2023 — a 2 missile attack on Eastern Crimea, attack. The official Russian report stated that: «ballistic missiles from the OTRK Grom-2 have been shot down over Crimea.» According to the Ukrainian sources: «There was a loud explosion in Sovetske district with the ground vibrating. A missile has been shot down over the village of Dmytrivka»

07.05.2023 — a massive 10 or 22 UAV attack on Sevastopol. The Sevastopol version read: «At night, air defense forces and electronic warfare units repelled another attack on Sevastopol. The 1st UAV lost control and crashed in a forest area. The 2nd one was shot down over the sea in Khersoness. The 3rd one was shot down over the sea from the side of the Northern breakwater. No city objects have been damaged. In total, more than 10 drones have attacked Crimea and Sevastopol.» Meanwhile, the Russian Defense Ministry's version stated: «Overnight, air defense systems detected 22 Ukrainian attack drones over the Black Sea. All the UAVs were destroyed by anti-aircraft missile systems or suppressed by electronic warfare.»

12.05.2023 — a UAV attack in Crimea. The official reports stated that an enemy UAV had been shot down by air defense forces in Western Crimea

19.05.2023 — a 4 UAV attack in Northern Crimea. According to the official reports, four UAVs had been shot down by air defense forces in Northern Crimea

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This article has been prepared with the support of the International Renaissance Foundation. The content of the article is the sole responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily reflect the position of the International Renaissance Foundation.