Militarization of the Black Sea

As part of the analytical report The situation in the Black Sea during the Russian aggression against Ukraine in 2022-2024, published in June 2024, the Monitoring Group of the Black Sea Institute of Strategic Studies and BlackSeaNews presents an updated database (as of 8 June 2024) of Russian warships, boats, and vessels destroyed or damaged by the Ukrainian Armed Forces since February 2022. As of 8 June 2024, the Russian fleet in the Black Sea suffered the following losses: 22 ships and boats were destroyed (excluding those damaged beyond repair); 20 ships and boats were damaged (including those damaged beyond repair).

The redeployment of the ships to safer bases forced the Russians to designate new, more remote areas for launching missiles at Ukraine, giving Ukraine's air defense more time to react. Meanwhile, the possibility of being attacked at any time virtually throughout the Black Sea has strongly impacted the morale of Russian servicemen.

The BSF was supposed to become a battering ram that would break Ukrainian resistance from the south and facilitate the Russian offensive on land in Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Kherson regions. After the destruction of the missile cruiser Moscow on 14.04.2022, the sinking/disabling of other ships and vessels in the northern and northwestern part of the Black Sea, and the receipt and use by Ukraine of Harpoon and Neptune-type air defense systems, the BSFRF significantly reduced its presence off the Ukrainian coast.

The Black Sea Institute of Strategic Studies and the BlackSeaNews continues to publish the analytical report of the Monitoring Group: Situation in the Black Sea During the Russian Aggression Against Ukraine in 2022-2024.

On the eve of the large-scale aggression in February 2022, the Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSFRF) consisted of approximately 80 warships and boats and up to 200 support vessels stationed at 7 naval bases. At the same time, due to the chronic underfunding of the national fleet development programs, the Ukrainian Navy had a rather modest ship and boat composition. 

Between January and April 2024, i.e. over 121 days, the Ukrainian Defense Forces carried out at least 47 attacks on targets in the occupied Crimean Peninsula and ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Those included: at least 15 attacks on Sevastopol; and no less than 6 on Russian Navy ships in the Black and Azov Seas; 11 on Yevpatoria, Saky, Black Sea and Razdolnensky districts (Western Crimea); 5 on Dzhankoi district; 2 on Feodosia region; and 3 along the Black Sea coast of the Russian Federation.

In January-April 2024, for attacks on regions of Ukraine from the occupied Crimea, Russian Armed Forces used at least: 15 Kalibr cruise missiles, 40 Iskander-type ballistic missiles, 1 P-800 Oniks anti-ship missile, 3 3М22 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles, 687 Shahed-136/131 UAVs launched both from Crimea and regions of Russia, 255 Shahed-136/131 UAVs launched from Crimea without simultaneous launches from the Russian territory and 22 reconnaissance UAVs of various types.

The Monitoring Group of the Black Sea Institute of Strategic Studies and BlackSeaNews presents the database of Russian warships, boats and vessels destroyed or damaged by the Ukrainian Defense Forces since February 2022.

In January-March 2024, for attacks on regions of Ukraine from the occupied Crimea, Russian Armed Forces used at least: 6 Kalibr cruise missiles, 31 Iskander-type ballistic missiles, 1 P-800 Oniks anti-ship missile, 3 3М22 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles, 618 Shahed-136/131 UAVs launched both from Crimea and regions of Russia, 178 Shahed-136/131 UAVs launched from Crimea without simultaneous launches from the Russian territory and 13 reconnaissance UAVs of various types.

In January 2024, i.e. 31 days, the Ukrainian Defense Forces carried out at least 12 attacks on targets in the occupied Crimean Peninsula. This includes at least 6 attacks in Sevastopol; 4 in Western Crimea; and 2 along the Black Sea coast of the Russian Federation.

Over the 12 months of 2023, the Russian Armed Forces used the occupied Crimea to strike at the regions of Ukraine, including with: 230 Kalibr sea-launched cruise missiles – from ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet (no launches registered since September 25, 2023); at least 1250 Shahed-136/131 UAVs launches, not including those launched from the Russian regions; 62 Iskander ballistic missiles and 25 P-800 Oniks anti-ship missiles. The Monitoring Group of the BlackSeaNews and the Black Sea Institute for Strategic Studies Based on the results of our own monitoring presents the database Russian Missile and Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) Attacks on the Regions of Ukraine from the Occupied Crimea in January-December 2023.

Over the 11 months of 2023, the Russian Armed Forces used the occupied Crimea to strike at the regions of Ukraine, including with: 230 Kalibr sea-launched cruise missiles – from ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet (no launches registered since September 25, 2023); at least 750 Shahed-136/131 UAVs launches, not including those launched from the Russian regions; 62 Iskander ballistic missiles and 25 P-800 Oniks anti-ship missiles. The Monitoring Group of the BlackSeaNews and the Black Sea Institute for Strategic Studies Based on the results of our own monitoring presents the database Russian Missile and Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) Attacks on the Regions of Ukraine from the Occupied Crimea in January-November 2023.

From January to October 2023, i.e., over 304 days, the Ukrainian Defense Forces carried out at least 155 attacks on targets in Crimean peninsula and Russian Black Sea Fleet, averaging one every other day. Among those: in Sevastopol – at least 37 attacks, or 24%; on BSF ships at sea – at least 19 attacks, or 12%; in Yevpatoriya, Saksky, Chornomorsky and Rozdolnensky districts (Western Crimea) – at least 25 attacks, or 16%; in Dzhankoy region— at least 14 attacks, or 9%; in Feodosia region – at least 12 attacks, or 7.6%; on Kerch Bridge – at least 4 attacks.

Just before the large-scale attack on Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Russia had formed in the Mediterranean Sea an unprecedented grouping of warships from all four of its fleets. Specifically, in the first decade of February 2022, Russia's «Mediterranean squadron» included 29 ships and boats, specifically: 11 missile ships, 6 large amphibious assault ships (LST), a patrol corvette, 2 minesweepers, an anti-submarine warfare boat, 2 reconnaissance ships, 4 auxiliary supply vessels, and 2 tugs. In the late summer of 2022, Russia began a gradual withdrawal of its main warships from the region. As of October 15, 2023, the number of Russian Mediterranean grouping has decreased by 5 times — from 29 ships and boats in February 2023 to merely 6 in October 2023.Currently it includes: 2 missile corvettes, an anti-submarine warfare boat, a reconnaissance ship, a supply tanker, a floating shipyard, and not a single tug.

The Monitoring Group of the Black Sea Institute of Strategic Studies, based on its own monitoring, publishes a database of vessels that arrived in and departed from the ports of Greater Odesa along the new Ukrainian temporary maritime export corridor, which began operating on 16 September 2023. As of 16 October 2023, the number of ships that arrived along this corridor in the ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Pivdenny to take on cargo is 31. Their total deadweight is 1.3 million tons. 17 vessels out of 31 have already left the ports with cargo and are on their way to or have already arrived in their ports of destination.