Freedom of Navigation Monitoring

Our ongoing daily monitoring and analysis of the Ukrainian sea corridor operation leads us to believe that the ballistic missile attacks on the ports of Greater Odesa that damage the ships are NOT episodes, but rather a new strategy aimed at incapacitating the Ukrainian sea corridor.

The Ukrainian parliament condemned the state policy of the Russian Federation on the growing militarization of the Black and Azov Seas and the Kerch Strait, and systematic cases of hampering or blocking of international navigation by the Russian Federation, which undermines security and stability in the region and beyond.

Both the Ukrainian and foreign readers are, of course, well aware of one of the biggest surprises of this war — namely, the defeat of the Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF), that as a result, has been forced to largely abandon its historic main base in the occupied Sevastopol. That case is now, certainly, being closely studied by all the general staffs and military academies of the world.

In January-February 2024, for attacks from Crimea on the Ukrainian regions the Russian Armed Forces used at least: 6 units of Kalibr sea-launched cruise missiles from ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, 3 of which — in February; 11 Iskander-type ballistic missiles, 2 of which — in February; P-800 Oniks anti-ship missiles were not used in January-February 2024; 392 Shahed-136/131 strike UAVs launched from Crimea and from the regions of the Russian Federation together, 169 of which — in February; 82 Shahed-136/131 UAVs Shahed-136/131 strike UAVs launched from Crimea, without simultaneous attacks from the RF.

In January 2024, the Russian Armed Forces (RAF) continued to strike all of Ukraine, using the temporarily occupied territory (TOT) of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea (ARC) and the adjacent Black Sea as launchpads for strike and reconnaissance drones, and cruise and ballistic missiles. As predicted, Russia has increased the share of Shahed-136/131 attack drones in its strike arsenal, primarily due to the start of its mass production within the country

Over the 12 months of 2023, the Russian Armed Forces used the occupied Crimea to strike at the regions of Ukraine, including with: 230 Kalibr sea-launched cruise missiles – from ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet (no launches registered since September 25, 2023); at least 1250 Shahed-136/131 UAVs launches, not including those launched from the Russian regions; 62 Iskander ballistic missiles and 25 P-800 Oniks anti-ship missiles. The Monitoring Group of the BlackSeaNews and the Black Sea Institute for Strategic Studies Based on the results of our own monitoring presents the database Russian Missile and Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) Attacks on the Regions of Ukraine from the Occupied Crimea in January-December 2023.

Over the 11 months of 2023, the Russian Armed Forces used the occupied Crimea to strike at the regions of Ukraine, including with: 230 Kalibr sea-launched cruise missiles – from ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet (no launches registered since September 25, 2023); at least 750 Shahed-136/131 UAVs launches, not including those launched from the Russian regions; 62 Iskander ballistic missiles and 25 P-800 Oniks anti-ship missiles. The Monitoring Group of the BlackSeaNews and the Black Sea Institute for Strategic Studies Based on the results of our own monitoring presents the database Russian Missile and Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) Attacks on the Regions of Ukraine from the Occupied Crimea in January-November 2023.

The Monitoring Group of the Black Sea Institute of Strategic Studies, based on its own monitoring, publishes a database of vessels that arrived in and departed from the ports of Greater Odesa along the new Ukrainian temporary maritime export corridor, which began operating on 16 September 2023. As of 16 October 2023, the number of ships that arrived along this corridor in the ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Pivdenny to take on cargo is 31. Their total deadweight is 1.3 million tons. 17 vessels out of 31 have already left the ports with cargo and are on their way to or have already arrived in their ports of destination.

As of 26 September 2023, of the 100 vessels that were blocked in Ukrainian ports on 24 February 2022, 50 remain: 29 of them are in the ports of the Mykolaiv region, 14 – in Kherson, and 5 – in Mariupol. For various reasons, 2 sea vessels out of 41 that were blocked on 24 February 2022 remain in the ports of the Odesa region. Of these 50 vessels, 15 belong to shipowner companies from EU countries (8 – to Greek shipowners, 3 – to Maltese ones, 1 vessel – to shipowners from Bulgaria, Germany, Estonia, and Denmark each), 14 – to shipowners from Turkey, and 8 – to Ukrainian shipowner companies. Other shipowners include companies from Norway, China, Great Britain, Montenegro, Bangladesh, the Marshall Islands, Lebanon, Egypt, and Singapore.

Long periods, starting from 9 May 2023, when no ships arrived at the ports, were explained not by weather conditions, but solely by the blocking of inspections by Russian JCC inspectors under various pretexts.

Initially, a direct voyage from a Russian port to a Ukrainian one during the war struck us as a coincidence that, however, prompted us to start checking for similar voyages by other vessels. As a result, we've easily identified a fairly significant number of vessels that arrived at Ukrainian ports having previously called at the Russian ports. For security reasons, including counteracting possible sabotage, special decisions should be made to prevent maritime businesses from chartering vessels that operate to Russian ports for the transportation of goods to/from Ukrainian ports or simply ban such vessels from entering Ukrainian ports.

No ships arrived at Ukrainian ports through the grain corridor from 9 to 20 May 2023. There have been no interruptions for such a long time since the beginning of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. This happened soon after 13 April 2023, when Russia for the first time formally compiled a detailed list of demands for the lifting of sanctions in return for its further participation in the Grain Initiative. The demands were presented in the form of an ultimatum to the UN Secretariat, although the UN cannot resolve the issue of easing sanctions.

The average daily number of ships arriving at the ports of Odesa as part of the «Black Sea Grain Initiative» is one of the indicators of military risks for the region. While in September 2022, it averaged 5.9 vessels per day, in October – 5.1, in November 2022 – 3.3, in December – 3.2, in January 2023 – 2.8, in February – 2.5 and between March 1-10, 2023 – 2.8 vessels per day. The decrease is the result of Russia conscious policy of inspecting no more than 3-4 vessels per day as part of its joint inspections with Turkey. The RF agreement to extend the «grain initiative» for 60, instead of the previous 120 days, is predetermined by the single factor — the May 14, 2023 presidential and parliamentary elections in Turkey.

The average number of vessels arriving per day at the ports of Odesa as part of the Black Sea Grain Initiative is one of the indicators of military risks. In September 2022, it was 5.9 vessels per day; in October – 5.1; in November – 3.3; and in December – 3.2. That is, in November, as a result of Russia’s deliberate actions, the number of vessels receiving permits for voyages to Ukrainian ports almost halved. Blocking the "grain corridor" remains an integral part of Putin's plan for a new stage of the war. That is, in the event of a new Russian offensive, the "grain corridor" may be blocked.

As we have predicted earlier, Russia continues the reduction and rotation of its naval group in the Mediterranean. On 16 October 2022, 2 missile corvettes of the Russian Baltic Fleet - (531) Soobrazitelnyi and (545) Stoikiy - entered the Mediterranean Sea through the Strait of Gibraltar. On 21 October 2022, the missile cruiser (011) Varyag, the flagship of the Pacific Fleet of the Russian Federation (PF), the large anti-submarine ship (564) Admiral Tributs (PF), and the oil tanker/supply ship Boris Butoma left the Mediterranean Sea through the Suez Canal.