Crude Oil and Oil Products Exports from the Russian Baltic and Black Sea Ports in April-August 2024. Part 1

The Monitoring Group of the Black Sea Institute of
Strategic Studies and the BlackSeaNews

The Monitoring Group of the Black Sea Institute of Strategic Studies and BlackSeaNews, based on the results of its own monitoring (see Bloody Oil), presents below the analysis of Russian crude oil and oil product exports from the Black and Baltic Sea ports between April 1-August 31, 2024.

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The monitoring and a corresponding adequate reaction to its results are crucial, as energy exports account for well over half of Russia's export earnings: depending on world prices, between 2013-2021, i.e., when Russian statistics could still be tentatively trustworthy, according to the Center for Global Studies «Strategy XXI» its share ranged from 54.3% to 68.8%. 

It’s worth keeping in mind that in the structure of revenues from Russian energy exports, the first place by a large margin belongs not to the natural gas, but to crude oil and petroleum products: 71.13% in 2021, while the share of revenues from gas and coal exports in that year was only 21.92% and 6.95%, respectively.

Given that after the outbreak of the Great War in 2022, Russian natural gas exports largely lost their main market in Europe, that is largely irreplaceable, it can be assumed that the share of oil and oil products now exceeds 70%.​

Revenues from energy exports are the largest external source of funding Russia's military spending, including the purchase of military equipment and dual-use goods abroad. That is, the trends in the export of Russian crude oil and petroleum products are one of the key indicators of the further war duration.

Since April 2024, the Monitoring Group, in addition to continuing its now traditional monitoring of maritime exports of crude oil and petroleum products from Russian Black Sea ports, has also started monitoring of maritime exports from the country's Baltic Sea ports.

Below, for the first time, we offer a consolidated analysis of oil exports from those two seas - the Black and the Baltic, that amount to about 80% of Russia's total of oil and oil product maritime exports.

The number of tankers involved in Russian oil exports from the Baltic and Black Seas and the volume of crude oil and oil products transported in April-August 2024

	April 2024	May 2024	June 2024	July 2024	August 2024
Russian crude oil, tankers
Baltic Sea	104	100	94	92	89
Black Sea	34	29	32	27	33
Total number of tankers	138	129	126	119	122
Russian oil products, tankers
Baltic Sea	70	56	69	60	54
Black Sea	142	141	140	132	137
Total number of tankers	212	197	209	192	191
Total fleet number	350	326	335	311	313
Russian crude oil, DWT, tons
Baltic Sea	11 806 110	11 313 931	10 677 104	10 448 481	10 328 818
Black Sea	4 066 358	3 498 137	4 135 544	3 385 130	3 397 067
Black/Baltic Sea ratio	34,4 : 65,6%	30,9 : 69,1%	38,7 : 61,3%	32,4 : 67,6%	32,9 : 67,1%
Total crude oil	15 872 468	14 812 068	14 812 648	13 833 611	13 725 885
Russian oil products, DWT, tons
Baltic Sea	3 731 761	2 467 673	3 306 525	2 862 773	2 639 950
Black Sea	3 612 444	3 615 522	3 560 657	3 643 826	2 618 024
Total oil products	7 344 205	6 083 195	6 867 182	6 506 599	5 257 974
Total export, tons	23 216 673	20 895 263	21 679 830	20 340 210	18 983 859

 

All of the tankers are included in our regularly updated Bloody Oil database (see also links at the end of the report).

The dynamics of the crude oil and oil products exports is shown in the diagrams below.

The diagrams for marine crude oil exports also show the exports of Kazakh crude oil from the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) that is not subject to the G7 and EU sanctions. 

The downward trend in those is not yet significant and may be seasonal.

Thus, on average, 310-350 tankers operate from the Baltic and Black Sea ports monthly, 120-140 of which transport crude oil, while 190-210 - oil products. 

The total volume of crude oil exports is about 14-16 million tons. The ratio of crude oil Black Sea to Baltic Sea exports is approximately 1:3. 

The latter is due to the fact that the capacity of the Russian port of Novorossiysk are loaded with exports of Kazakh CPC crude oil totaling 5-7 million tons monthly.

The corresponding ratio of oil product exports fluctuates around 1:1, totaling from 2.6 to 3.6 million tons monthly.

Other aspects of the Russian crude oil and petroleum product exports will be analyzed in the upcoming parts of the report.

Databases of crude oil and petroleum product marine exports from the Baltic Sea ports:

92 Tankers Exported Crude Oil from Russian Baltic Sea Ports in July 2024: Database

In total, in July 2024, 92 tankers exported crude oil from Russian ports on the Baltic Sea. They transported a total of 10 448 481 tons of crude oil, compared to 10.7 million tons in June 2024 and 11.3 million tons in May 2024.

94 Tankers Exported Crude Oil from Russian Baltic Sea Ports in June 2024: Database

In total, in June 2024, 94 tankers exported crude oil from Russian ports on the Baltic Sea. They transported a total of about 10.7 million tons of crude oil, compared to 11.3 million tons in May 2024 and 11.8 million tons in April 2024.

100 Tankers Exported Crude Oil from Russian Baltic Sea Ports in May 2024: Database

In total, in May 2024, 100 tankers exported crude oil from Russian ports on the Baltic Sea. They transported a total of about 11 313 931 tons of crude oil, compared to 11.8 million tons in April 2024.

Maritime Exports of Russian Petroleum Products Through its Baltic Sea Ports: July 2024 Database

In July 2024, 2 862 773 tons of Russian petroleum products were delivered through the Russian ports of the Baltic Sea, compared to almost 3,3 million tons in June 2024.

Maritime Exports of Russian Petroleum Products Through its Baltic Sea Ports: June 2024 Database

In June 2024, 3 306 525 tons of Russian petroleum products were delivered through the Russian ports of the Baltic Sea, compared to almost 2,5 million tons in May 2024.

Databases of crude oil and petroleum product marine exports from Black Sea ports:

44 Tankers Exported Kazakh Oil from Russian Black Sea Port of Novorossiysk In July 2024: Database

In July 2024, a total of 44 tankers exported CPC oil from the Russian port of Novorossiysk, excluding the exports to Bulgaria and Romania. Together they exported a total of about 5.9 million tons of oil, including 4.8 million tons to the EU and more than 1 million tons to other countries.

202 Tankers Exported Crude Oil and Oil Products from Russian Black Sea Ports in July 2024: Database

In total, in July 2024, 202 tankers exported oil and petroleum products from Russian ports (excluding exports to Bulgaria and Romania). They transported a total of about 13 million tons of cargo, including 3.4 (27 tankers) million tons of Russian crude oil, 5.9 million tons of Kazakh CPC crude oil (44 tankers), and 3.6 million tons of Russian petroleum products (131 tankers).

216 Tankers Exported Crude Oil and Oil Products from Russian Black Sea Ports in June 2024: Database

In total, in June 2024, 216 tankers exported oil and petroleum products from Russian ports (excluding exports to Bulgaria and Romania). They transported a total of about 13.7 million tons of cargo, including 4.1 million tons of Russian crude oil (32 tankers), 6 million tons of Kazakh CPC crude oil (44 tankers), and 3.6 million tons of Russian petroleum products (140 tankers).

44 Tankers Exported Kazakh Oil from Russian Black Sea Port of Novorossiysk In June 2024: Database

In June 2024, a total of 44 tankers exported CPC oil from the Russian port of Novorossiysk, excluding the exports to Bulgaria and Romania. Together they exported a total of about 6 million tons of oil, including 5 million tons to the EU and 928 thousands tons to other countries.

217 Tankers Exported Crude Oil and Oil Products from Russian Black Sea Ports in May 2024: Database

In total, in May 2024, 217 tankers exported oil and petroleum products from Russian ports (excluding exports to Bulgaria and Romania). They transported a total of about 13.4 million tons of cargo, including 3.5 million tons of Russian crude oil (29 tankers), 6.3 million tons of Kazakh CPC crude oil (47 tankers), and 3.6 million tons of Russian petroleum products (141 tankers).

47 Tankers Exported Kazakh Oil from Russian Black Sea Port of Novorossiysk In May 2024: Database

In May 2024, a total of 47 tankers exported CPC oil from the Russian port of Novorossiysk, excluding the exports to Bulgaria and Romania. Together they exported a total of about 6.3 million tons of oil, including 5.1 million tons to the EU and 1.2 million tons to other countries.

225 tankers exported crude oil and petroleum products from Russian Black Sea ports in April 2024: The database

In total, in April 2024, 225 tankers exported oil and petroleum products from Russian ports (excluding exports to Bulgaria and Romania). They transported a total of about 14.6 million tons of cargo, including 4.1 million tons of Russian crude oil (34 tankers), 6.9 million tons of Kazakh CPC crude oil (50 tankers), and 3.6 million tons of Russian petroleum products (141 tankers).

In April 2024, 50 Tankers exported Kazakh Oil from the Russian Black Sea Port of Novorossiysk (Database)

In April 2024, a total of 50 tankers exported CPC oil from the Russian port of Novorossiysk, excluding the exports to Bulgaria and Romania. Together they exported a total of about 6.9 million tons of oil, including 5.8 million tons to the EU and 1.1 million tons to other countries.

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This article has been prepared with the support of the European Union in Ukraine. The content of the article is the sole responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily reflect the position of the EU.