Moldova's GDP growth forecast remains at 4% - IMF’S world economic outlook

The International Monetary Fund has preserved the GDP growth forecast for Moldova in 2013, at the level of 4%.

In its World Economic Outlook, the IMF states that «After a relatively strong start, activity decelerated in the CIS during the course of 2012, bringing growth down to 3.5% for the year, from 4.1% in 2011. The global slowdown affected exports across the region, although the impact was stronger in the European CIS countries than in the Caucasus and central Asia. Domestic demand also weakened for varying reasons: in Russia because export prices for oil stopped rising, and in Ukraine because of higher interest rates used to defend the exchange rate. Georgia’s economy slowed in the second half of the year because of uncertainties stemming from October’s election and the ensuing political transition. Moldova’s growth came to a halt in 2012, the result of a poor harvest, slowing trade, and stagnating remittances.»

IMF experts say that the economic advancement in 2013 will be reached due to the improvement of the situation in agriculture, as well as on the external markets.

According to the IMF, growth in emerging market and developing economies is forecast to reach 5.3% in 2013 and 5.7% in 2014. Growth in the United States is forecast to be 1.9% in 2013 and 3.0% in 2014. In contrast, growth in the euro area is forecast to be –0.3 % in 2013 and 1.1% in 2014. The growth figure for the United States for 2013 may not seem very high, and indeed it is insufficient to make a large dent in the still-high unemployment rate. But it will be achieved in the face of a very strong, indeed overly strong, fiscal consolidation of about 1.8% of GDP.

Inflation is expected to remain close to current levels in 2013.

Adapted from Infotag